300 Reasons Why Pakistan is Confident

300 Reasons Why Pakistan is Confident

Posted: Tue, 27 Sep 2011 

Map of more than 50 US air bases in the Middle East

Bruce Riedel

has written an article titled "Why Pakistan is getting cocky" which is part of the concerted campaign to demonize Pakistan. Like Mullen and Munter, he blames everything on Islamabad. He has a right to do this, he gets paid to write articles like the one being discussed here. "

Pakistan's Army and intelligence service are behaving ever more provocatively—with potentially drastic ramifications for the war in Afghanistan. Riedel discusses Admiral Mullen's rhetoric that for the first time directly links Pakistan's intelligence service, ISI, to recent attacks on NATO forces and the U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan puts America and Pakistan on a collision course"…Mullen labeled the Haqqani Taliban a "veritable arm" and "proxy" of the ISI.

Pakistan feels they hold a lot of aces, maybe more than they should.

• Yet the ISI also knows American and European support for staying in Afghanistan is dropping. Canada has already left.
• Obama has started withdrawing faster than his generals wanted.
• The Pakistani officers want to accelerate this process—the sooner NATO is gone, the better for them.
• So their advice to their Afghan proxies is to carry out operations designed to impact the home audience in America and Europe.
• Make the war look unwinnable and hopeless.
• Make Kabul appear chaotic and unsafe. Kill any hope for a political process. The darker Afghanistan appears on TV screens, the sooner the foreign armies will be called home.
• Reality is less important than image in this war.
• The Army leadership also feels it can weather any blowback from Washington.
• The generals assume U.S. military aid will be cut or eliminated by Congress sooner rather than later, and they are confident that the Saudis and Chinese will fill the gap.
• They also know NATO's logistical supply line to Kabul runs through Karachi (more than half of everything NATO eats, drinks, and shoots arrives via Karachi despite intense efforts to find alternatives).
• They have leverage and they know it. And of course, they have the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal in the world with a developing tactical nuclear capability.
• They feel they hold a lot of aces, maybe more than they should. Cocky poker players are dangerous.

Bruce has accurately mentioned many of the reasons–that have made the Pakistanis "cocky". However he doesn't emphasize the 300 Nuclear weapons that Pakistan has–Pakistan is not Iraq or Libya–Any invasion will have dire consequences. Colonel Qaddafi may be wondering if one of his biggest blunders was sent the crated nuclear weapons to Washington. The world has seen the US not attack North Korean but carpet bomb Afghanistan.

US air bases in the vicinity

Ten years ago–President Musharraf and pretty much the same lineup of generals got intimidated by the US threat of bombing Pakistan "to the stone age." They really believed that the US was an honest broker and would never install an Anti-Pakistani, minority regime in Kabul. Washington did exactly that, and allowed Bharat into Afghanistan. The Americans then began the drone bombings and many feel that the TTP is being sponsored by foreign powers.

In affect the Pakistanis feel that have been cornered. US Aid has not done much for either the military and or the country–so there seems to be unanimous consensus in Pakistan that they don't want American aid–or the strings that come along with it. That was one of the reasons that Islamabad has refused the IMF program.

The calculus in Pakistan is that that Pakistan's participation in the US war on terror has been a net loss and Pakistanis don't want any part of it. General Kayani is reacting to the rank and file of the Pakistani Army—Khar's statements in the UN will represent the man on the street.

Dr. Maleeha Lodhi a wise and sagacious Ambassador understands the Americans very thoroughly–she on a recent talk show clearly stated that these flared tempers need to be cooled.

The US had an opportunity to build alliances and friendships in the Indus Valley. It failed to do so–and lost the admiration and loyalty of 180 million people.

--
Shahzad Shameem

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "ENGLISH Documents" group.
To post to this group, send email to englishdocuments@googlegroups.com.
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to englishdocuments+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/englishdocuments?hl=en.